Beefeater: cheers.....:) Beefeater (Lobby): can you give me the link here pse ->Beefeater: grizzbridge.com Beefeater (Lobby): I will 'ear-mark' it grizz: http://www.grizzbridge.com/ ->Beefeater: http://www.grizzbridge.com/ Beefeater (Lobby): yep, thanks, have been there previously but wasnt sure ->Beefeater: i got lazy last fall about updates, but will try to improve on that :) Beefeater (Lobby): ur a very busy man, hard to accomplish all we want to Beefeater (Lobby): hey, I enjoyed playing against you the other day ....with Chas p as my p :) ->Beefeater: y, wasn't that a blast on new year's eve? Beefeater (Lobby): it was.......:) Beefeater (Lobby): were you surprised I ducked your initial lead? ->Beefeater: sry, i don't recall the hand Beefeater (Lobby): was a 4!h contract, you led Q!C's :) and held K also ->Beefeater: oh y, and you hoped i would continue Beefeater (Lobby): correct Beefeater (Lobby): hehe ->Beefeater: didn't i switch though? Beefeater (Lobby): Chas said ..............I knew I should have bit it but if he had, it probably would have gone down:) Beefeater (Lobby): you did :) ->Beefeater: :) Beefeater (Lobby): bit=bid :) bbo_iac (Lobby): => Club: Grizz session now starting in club: Discussion of the bidding play and defense of random hands. All are welcome to participate. Beefeater (Lobby): yes, when I ducked your initial lead you changed tack :) bbo_iac: Hi Happy New Year :) grizz: hiya! and to all as well ZolakarML: hi Beefeater (Lobby): I played with Karen Walker too :) that was very encouraging hope: one for New Year - she is pretty and sexy http://www.wat.tv/video/lara-fabian-caruso-most-powerful-dn74_dn3d_.html ArlieArms: hello. thanks for this session ->hope: thx, will check it out later :) Beefeater: is this a private session? grizz: wlc all, it's good to be back for another year in the IAC hope: :) I am sure y will like it Have a very Happy New Year ->Beefeater: nope, this is open Beefeater: cheers, I am registered with IAC grizz: all areas of bidding, declarer play and defense are fair game in these sessions ->Beefeater: great! grizz: Chat logs and hand records are stored in your computer for later review. For information on how to retrieve them, go the BIL homepage or email me. grizz: I teach private individual, pair, and small group lessons. I am available for tournaments as well. If you would like to know more please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com. grizz: Archives of old sessions are available at GrizzBridge.com, on the Lessons and Archives page. grizz: These sessions have been updated recently, so check out what's new at GrizzBridge.com grizz: There will be lots of questions. I want to address them all, but in a manner helpful to all, so please ask them in open chat. grizz: I encourage participation by all kibs. grizz: So jump right in with a comment, question, or bid at any time, but please do it in open chat... grizz: ...since I can't always respond to private chat. grizz: This week we are going to continue looking at example hands and auctions, consider defensive plans and choose leads. grizz: These example hands are not predealt, they are random. grizz: So I have not analyzed them, rather we are all looking at them for the first time. grizz: The bidding will be done by the bots, though I must sit in one of the seats during play to control the pace. grizz: I have no idea who the declarer will be or which seat will be on lead, so you may kibitz all 4 hands. grizz: If you wonder what a GIB bid means, click on it - the bots play 2/1. grizz: Here is the GIB convention card: http://online.bridgebase.com/doc/gib_system_notes.php grizz: grizz: click on 3!c for an explanation grizz: this is Unusual vs. Unusual, where cuebids of the op suits show strength and shape grizz: fwiw, if i were N i would have bid 3!h, cuebidding ops' higher suit to show LR+ in !s grizz: there is no chance for us to find a !s fit if N does not make that bid analisals: how would pard know that it wasn't a limit raise in diamonds? grizz: comment on the play grizz: when E does not take the A here, assume that W has it gimit: LR, pls? ->analisals: it was! grizz: Limit Raise analisals: oh you said spades? gimit: tks grizz: back to UvU for a minute grizz: the unusual NT bid shows 2 suits, !h and a minor grizz: here is a webpage for it: http://web2.acbl.org/documentLibrary/play/Commonly_Used_Conventions/unusual.pdf grizz: so a cuebid of the higher op suit shows a LR+ in the higher unbid suit, which is !s here, grizz: and a cuebid of either minor shows a LR+ in my minor grizz: the scheme works over Michaels interference too grizz: cuebid of the higher implied suit shows the higher unbid suit, and lower = lower suit grizz: back to the play grizz: when E does not rise with the A, assume that W has it grizz: and hope that W does not have the Q too grizz: dangit, down 1 grizz: on a hand that makes 4!s, that's bad bridge grizz: so let me show you how Unusual vs. Unusual SHOULD work on this hand moedraznin (Lobby): afternoon. I asked UDAY about the dragob, he know nothing.... he said to send more info to Fred... I could not make it carsh... LOL ->moedraznin: lol if it ain't broke, don't fix it! grizz: refer to the discussion above - 3!h here actually shows !ss grizz: and need not have 5, might be only 4 grizz: decision time for S now moedraznin: and it crashed before but not when I was getting in and out of games new go figure grizz: it would be better if the Ks were in our suits instead of theirs Beefeater: do you want all questions on the table? ->Beefeater: y Beefeater: I would like to ask one question grizz: fire away moedraznin: so I am accumulating print screens when it does crash Beefeater: when considering the value of the South hand, it is possible that the K!h's could be valueless .......should this still be opened? gimit: how does N know W has !h and not !s? grizz: gimit, unusual NT is usually the 2 lower unbid suits grizz: if not, it's the minors even if ops opened a minor gimit: ok grizz: the only way it could be otherwise is if ops play Top and Bottom Cues instead of Michaels grizz: and i have never seen T&B on BBO :) grizz: so the W bid must be !h and !c grizz: ergo N has 2 suits to cuebid grizz: !h showing the higher unbid suit, and !c the lower leonora3: should W alert and explain? grizz: on the ACBL scorecard the jump to 2NT is in black, so it is not alertable leonora3: ok grizz: but you are entitled to ask whether it means minors or the 2 lower unbid suits Beefeater: if South does not open, then the whole contract/bidding sequence would be quite different worth consideration? grizz: or to look at ops cc to see for yourself grizz: sure, but 99% of all players would open the S hand gimit: ok, isn't that Michael's Precisee? grizz: 2.5 quick tricks, and no rebid problems grizz: !ds are rebiddable grizz: but the question now is, 4!s or not? grizz: and the !hK certainly is a suspect value here, !cs as well grizz: but even if you count the !hK as a loser, you have a 6 loser hand grizz: if you count the !CK as a loser too, S still has a 7 loser hand, a full opener grizz: and now we know about a !s fit grizz: and !d tolerance grizz: but we don't have any room to explore, S is on the hotseat right now grizz: with only one chance to get it right grizz: so i go back to Losing Trick Count, and carve a middle path grizz: assume the !hK is a loser, but not the !CK grizz: at least it's protected from the opening lead grizz: compromise, call it .5 loser grizz: and pard has 10-12 with !s fit and !c tolerance grizz: !d tolerance grizz: that is a double fit, and it upgrades the hand Beefeater: gj, Double fits are certainly 'good value' grizz: that is how Unusual vs. Unusual should be played :) sascha3: :) grizz: y, double fits are golden leonora3->Club: y tx grizz: if W ducks the !s it runs to the J, and back comes a !c, but it still makes grizz: for those who are still on the fence about double fits, consider this grizz: i will wander down a sidetrack about slams for a few minutes grizz: there are 3 kinds of slam hands grizz: 1. overwhelming strength grizz: 33-36 for a small, or 37+ for a grand grizz: 2. freak hands with long suits and side controls grizz: 3. double fits grizz: chances of 33-36 hcp between the two hands is 1 hand in 143.5, or .7% grizz: chances of 37+ is 1 hand in 5848, or .02% grizz: it's really hard to compute odds on freaks, but from experience we know that they are very infrequent grizz: certainly less frequent than the overwhelming strength hands grizz: but we all know that slams are much more frequent than 1 hand out of +/- 140 grizz: and those hands are the double fits! grizz: so most slam hands are double fits grizz: and the same logic carries over to game contracts grizz: this hand is more the rule than the exception when it comes to game contracts grizz: so when you must decide whether to take the push on a game, if you have a double fit that should tilt the scale in favor of bidding the game grizz: for 2 reasons - grizz: 1. you have a source of tricks, and grizz: 2. chances are that either you or pard is short in ops' suit(s) grizz: so even if you have xxx in ops' suit, chances are that pard has x or xx if he has a double fit in 2 other suits grizz: or you might get lucky and pard has Ax, or Kx and A is onside grizz: ok, any questions on this hand? Dianne0516: Why did GIB go up with the K !s here on first trick? grizz: lol you must ask the GIB that, and he ain't talkin' grizz: very poor play Dianne0516: want the pros opinion grizz: the pro will never rise with the K in that position, in case pard has the J grizz: the GIB play level depends on how much time i give it to "think" grizz: if you move the slider over and give GIB a long time to think he plays better grizz: but takes forever to do so Campus61: how do u cahnge how fast they play seems they are very slow grizz: so for the sake of saving time, i dumbed the robot down gimit: what level is GIB supposed to have? leonora3: does it actually "think?" grizz: it actually performs probability calculations in real time, grizz: a whole lot faster than humans do grizz: so i don't feel bad about timing it down a tad :) sascha3: what do u have the gib set on for good play - 1/2 way or towards faster? grizz: let me show you what 1/2 way is - delcod1: then I guess I should be "programmed" too....might do better at this game grizz: same hand, at half speed sascha3: lol grizz: zzzzz gimit: :) grizz: more zzzzzz Dianne0516: lol grizz: the gallery wanders off toward the snack bar Beefeater: gee :) grizz: janitors show up wanda21: lol onoway: lol sascha3: ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!! Beefeater: does West have to take his shoes off as well to count? grizz: lol gimit: And we might finish one hand before the class is over Dianne0516: You should give him time to think, he bid worse sascha3: yes he did grizz: that was at half speed, so i run it close to fastest for these sessions sascha3: lol ths Pete grizz: :) grizz: you get the drift, i will speed it up again sascha3: sure do - and yes pls grizz: any other questions on this one? sascha3: no ths grizz: grizz: ok, here goes grizz: now the lead of the J shows the bottom of the sequence, promising the Q too grizz: nice score on a part score hand :) grizz: any questions on this one? Dianne0516: Comments on spade bid by N grizz: minimum, but a solid bid Dianne0516: vul? Dianne0516: OH, didn't see S opened grizz: with only 4 a Neg X would be better, but N has a fair suit, 6 hard hcp, and good middle cards Dianne0516: multi-tasking grizz: oh, if S did not open then N is not big enough for an overcall grizz: but plenty big enough to respond Dianne0516: y grizz: and this hand also demonstrates that when both sides are in a misfit, 'tis better to defend than declare grizz: sascha3: yes 3!D is no where near as good as 300 sascha3: sorry 2!D cdt: I had only heard lead top of a sequence is this a special case? grizz: for trick 1 i did lead the top cdt: ok sleeping here lol grizz: trick 2 was the bottom, a special signal to show pard the in-between card too grizz: :) Dianne0516: we both need to wake up, Tommie :) grizz: hmmmm take the push or not? grizz: N shows 10-12 here grizz: and S is looking at 13 and 5!hs grizz: what else do we know? grizz: S must have 2-3!ss grizz: so ops have 7-8 Ishudav: S knows N has a maximum of 2 hearts grizz: y, 1-2!hs grizz: so probably a !d fit grizz: and the !cQ has some support over there grizz: another thing, 12 opposite 12 frequently makes 3NT grizz: i don't have any scientific proof of that, just several decades of observation gimit: with 5card suits, I think grizz: but what are the odds that pard has 12? grizz: not so good Ishudav: 1 in 3? grizz: more likely 11 or a good 10 grizz: maybe a little less, assuming Gaussian distribution for 10-11-12 grizz: it's a bell curve, so 10 is more probable than 11 is more probable than 12 grizz: so how good is the 5 card suit? grizz: only so-so grizz: if it were AKT9x, i would take the push grizz: but not here grizz: and if it makes, i will always think it should NOT have made :) sascha3: :) lol grizz: while the bots are playing, a side note about when to stretch for a game grizz: at imps if you are vul, it pays to stretch grizz: in any other case it doesn't grizz: if you watch the pros play, they hardly ever stretch sascha3: is that the case in suit contracts also ? grizz: they pick up extra tricks here and there in declarer play and defense Dianne0516: But they are playing against pros grizz: y grizz: but the point is, pro play for averages and tops grizz: without risking bottoms grizz: so they will shoot for tops when their methods give them an edge over the field grizz: or if they are behind in a match and "swinging" grizz: but ordinarily they won't stretch, but play a disciplined game grizz: this hand is a good example grizz: there are some hands that have golden cards, and make 3NT grizz: N could have the !HA and !CJT for example grizz: or the hand could depend on a lead, or a long suit blocking in ops' hands, or bad defense, etc grizz: or an 8 card suit dividing 4-4 grizz: but there are a lot more hands that go down grizz: if you bid on what you WISH partner to have, instead of what you KNOW or what the odds are, you are destined for many bad results grizz: just a tip from one who has had a LOT of bad results over the years :) grizz: i learned discipline late in life, but better late than never grizz: till working on it, actually lol grizz: any questions? sascha3: no ths grizz: well then, time's up Dianne0516: Thanks Grizz :) grizz: it's great to be back in the IAC, thanks for watching ydannac: THANKS GRIZZ!H!H onoway: thanks so much Pete :) and thanks all for coming ladygolf: Bobbie asked me to tell you that unless she hears otherwise will see you tomorrow AM nellie2: ty isabable: ty doldridg: thks Pete grizz: yes! kib participation makes this a fun exercise bbo_iac: Thanks Pete :) good to have you back JohnnyHiLo: thanks. analisals: yes I will right now and get back to you sascha3: thx Pete was great ->ladygolf: thx !H JanaDe: Hi Pete, are we back to our regular Monday schedule? Beefeater: thanks Pete ->JanaDe: right ladygolf: Thanks Pete grizz: OK then, our time is up now, thanks for coming and I'll see you next week. grizz: If anybody needs help retrieving the hand records or chat log, please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com. sascha3: byeeeeee grizz: I teach private individual, pair, and small group lessons. If you would like to know more please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com. grizz: Thanks to Fred and all the wonderful people at BBO who make this all possible. grizz: Thanks all for coming, and I hope see you next week. analisals: thanks Pete grizz: Happy bridging! Grizz out. ->analisals: :)