BILmanager: => Club: !D!D GRIZZ on Defense - Teaching table now open -  good defence wins tournaments - learn how -  all welcome  !D!D 
grizz: hi gang
grizz: thx for attending another session on Defense
grizz: we have talked about leads, third hand play and signals now for several months, and now i think it's time we put everything together
grizz: so i will play against the robots today, choosing hands where EW declares, and make comments about leads, play, signals and whatever pops up
grizz: and as always i encourage participation by all the kibs
grizz: so jump right in with a comment, question, or bid at any time, but please do it in open chat
grizz: since i can't always respond to private chat
grizz: well now, that was spirited auction!
grizz: now North must be thinking:   EW bid to slam unopposed off 2 aces
grizz: one of those must be dead, do i dare guess which one?
PoorRich_1: grizz, do the gib's here bid revised 2/1?
Dianne0516: I think the Robots drink oil with alcohol in it half the timegrizz: rofl
grizz: i agree, and that's why i don't play money bridge any more   :)
grizz: the gibs play a form of basic 2/1, and you can click on their bids in the yellow box for description of their bids
grizz: 4!h it says is a Help Suit Slam Try
grizz: which I have never played, and cannot recommend
grizz: i prefer cuebidding controls
grizz: as slam tries
grizz: and the first cuebid can be A, K, stiff or void
grizz: so i would have bid 4!d as West
grizz: and E would bid 4!h
grizz: and nobody would know what the controls were without RKC to clarify
grizz: nevertheless, the robots are in slam so what should we lead?
grizz: hint:
grizz: leading aces in this auction is suicide
grizz: and underleading aces is worse
grizz: so trump or !d
grizz: the 'book' says lead aggressively vs. small slams
grizz: so N opts for a !d
grizz: NW are playing standard attitude signals, for purposes of this class
grizz: but one does not signal with an honor in most cases
grizz: here is another defensive rule - give count on declarer's lead
grizz: lol    as if W ruffing the trick weren't loud enough
grizz: it doesn't pay for N to cover, since E can ruff
grizz: and W might ruff anyway, playing S for the ace
grizz: well, that was just a goofy slam
grizz: but still, N should not double
grizz: because of hands just like these, where one or even both aces gets ruffed out
grizz: any questions on this one?
grizz: besides the goofball auction?
bookmarm: none, ty
grizz: or was it?
grizz: let's look at a Losing Trick Count analysis of the hand
BILmanager: can't you do it without using GIB which is a cuase of huge confusion -  sit in all 4 seats and use the randon deals  ?  
->BILmanager: i'm still only 50%, and that's too much thinking
BILmanager: :)
grizz: E's losers are:
grizz: 2!s
grizz: 1!d
grizz: and 2!c
grizz: 5 losers, which is a GF hand opposite any response, if a fit is found
grizz: and for W:
grizz: 2!s
grizz: 1!h
grizz: 1!d
grizz: 2!c
grizz: 6 losers
TheMoak: 6 losers for west
grizz: 6 + 4 = 10, and 24-10=14
grizz: so LTC predicts that EW will make 8!s, if they have enough controls
gojoe: you have lost me 
grizz: bear with me, we will do Losing Trick Count another time
grizz: or maybe now is good
grizz: can we have a show of hands?
grizz: who wants to do Losing Trick Count today?
aljerry: yes
Feegle->Club: where does +4 come from?
BILmanager: say yea or nay 
doldridg->Club: yea
aljerry: 6d 4sp
gojoe: ok
mildred42: i do
HAFUN: yea
annnew: yea
grizz: ok, let's do LTC
mildred42: yea
grizz: LTC is a method for evaluating the strength of a hand
BILmanager: !D 40 kibs I dont see 40 replies to Pete's question do you want to talk about LTC now ? 
doldridg: y
jaldi: yea
bookmarm: sure
aljerry: y
Dianne0516: y
solidgold: y
TALR: y
gojoe: just do something right or wrong..taking too much time up
juneber: y
Gap56: y
kopykat: Yes
grizz: haven't seen any nays yet, so let's go forward
grizz: LTC is an alternate method of hand evaluation
MtlQueCan: you don't see any negative response so they must be positive
grizz: different entirely from Milton point count
grizz: let me first say that LTC only works well with a known fit
grizz: and breaks down on balanced hands
grizz: so disregard the method entirely on NT hands
grizz: but here is the basic scheme
grizz: look only at the top 3 cards in each suit
grizz: so for the W hand, we look at the !SA76
grizz: for !hs, the KQ6
grizz: !d2
grizz: and !c42
grizz: the basic rule is, count 1 loser for each of those cards that is not an A, K or Q
grizz: there will be some adjustments later, but let's start with the basics
grizz: so for the W hand, the 7 and 6 are losers, for a count of 2
grizz: in !hs, only the 6 is a loser
grizz: for a total count of 2+1=3
grizz: 1!d
grizz: 2+1+1=4
grizz: and both the !cs are losers
grizz: 2+1+1+2=6
grizz: so the W hand has 6 losers, with the known !s fit
grizz: are we all clear on that part?
Gap56: y
joyable: y
doldridg: y
mildred42: y
grizz: ok, let's look at the E hand
grizz: the !SJT are losers, for 2
grizz: no losers in !h with the void
grizz: the !d8 is a loser, for 2+1=3
jaldi: when in a tourney....does one have time to do the TLC
grizz: yes, it takes less than 5 seconds to do it
jaldi: and thinking of the bidding/auction?
grizz: i do it on all hands, as a cross-check
grizz: in fact, sometimes i do several different evaluations
grizz: Milton point count
grizz: LTC
grizz: Rule of 20
grizz: and Zar Points
gojoe: actually the king of clubs is on right side of ace..for one trick
joyable: ?
smudge1->Club: zar?
joyable: zar
lanor fow: complicated point count
grizz: for real bridge geeks, check it out on Wikipedia
grizz: thumbnail sketch of Zar Points:
grizz: formulated by Zar Petkov, after long and industrious statistical evaluation of bidding systems
grizz: A=6 points
grizz: K=4
grizz: Q=2
grizz: J=1
gojoe: are you sure we are beginners/intermediate
grizz: i don't expect you to remember or use it, just to know that it exists
joyable: tks
grizz: to finish out Zar, add then the length of your 2 longest suits
grizz: and the difference in length between longest and shortest
grizz: and if you have 26 points, you open
joyable: uh
grizz: so a quick Zar evaluation of the E hand here
grizz: !s=4+1=5
grizz: !d=6+2=8
grizz: !c=4
grizz: 17 points so far
grizz: now add the lengths of the 2 longest suits, !d and !s
grizz: so 17+6+4=27
grizz: and the difference between the longest and shortest, !d and !h
grizz: 27+6=33
gojoe: this is nuts...I am leaving
grizz: ok
grizz: 26 points is an opener in Zar points
hoppyjack->Club: Why would the delta be 6.  ?
grizz: that is far beyond the scope of today
grizz: oh, simple math
grizz: 6-0=6
grizz: the difference between the longest and shortest suit
hoppyjack: I missed it.  Sorry about that.  :-) 
grizz: so let's get back to LTC
BILmanager: ~D let's keep it simple -  this is for learners not matheticians 
grizz: nope, that is not my intent
grizz: just wanted everybody to know there are alternate methods of hand evaluation
ramseygf: is the zar count any better evaluation in Trumps or NT
grizz: back to LTC
grizz: E has 5 losers
grizz: and W has 6
grizz: total of 11
grizz: looks like i goofed earlier, when i said E has 4 losers, it
grizz: it's really 2!s, 1!d and 2!c=5
grizz: add the losers together and subtract from 24 (magic number, trust me)
grizz: and that is how many tricks LTC predicts that you can take
grizz: so 24-11=13
grizz: LTC predicts that EW can take 13 tricks, IF they have sufficient controls
fiscryder: may I comment pls.... think most helpful would be learning to reevaluate hand during bidding...eg... have agreed suit with pard and have single in opps bid suit/
grizz: sure, LTC takes that into consideration
grizz: for example, W has only 1 !D loser
fiscryder: ty  I think for begins/intermeds its a weak pt
grizz: and 2!c losers
grizz: let's do some more hands
grizz: E has 8 losers
grizz: 2!s, 3!h, 1!d and 2!c
grizz: W has 2!s, 2!h, 2!d and 2!c
grizz: 8+8=16
grizz: 24-16=8
grizz: so LTC predicts that EW can take 8 tricks in their best fit, which is !d
grizz: looks like they lose 1!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: and 2!c
kbkoch: Would you open with 12 hcp and 8 losers in 1 and 2nd seat?
ramseygf: would W not say to himself i have a loser less so 3D
grizz: sure, and we'll get into that in just a bit
grizz: so ops take 5 tricks, and it does in fact make 8 tricks in !d
joyable: using rule of 20 would not open e
grizz: right
grizz: and here is another facet of LTC:   an opening hand should have no more than 7 losers
grizz: so E is not an opening hand per LTC, with 8 losers
panim: but E is not red
grizz: true
joyable: grizz - sorry I arrived late what does that stand for?
joyable: LTC
grizz: nevertheless, W will have every right to expect that E has a full opener in 1st or 2nd position
grizz: LTC = Losing Trick Count, for latecomers
joyable: tks
grizz: this is an alternate hand evaluation method
grizz: so EW performs according to the prediction
BILmanager: !D I published an article on LTC in last week's Gazette which those who are interested can print out 
grizz: excellent
grizz: what does NS do?
grizz: N first
grizz: and here is the first adjustment to LTC
grizz: the singleton K is a loser
grizz: since it must be played on the first trick
grizz: so N has 1 loser in !s
grizz: !hJ9 for 2 more
grizz: 3!d losers
grizz: and 1!c
grizz: 7 total
grizz: and S has 3!s, 1!d and 3!c
grizz: for 7
grizz: so LTC predicts that NS can take 24-7-7=10 tricks in their best fit, !cs
grizz: if NS play in !cs, ops take:
grizz: no !hs
grizz: 1!d
grizz: 1!c
grizz: and 1!s
grizz: 3 for the ops, 10 for NS
grizz: so LTC is right on the money, both ways
grizz: any questions on this hand, LTC-wise?
joyable: n
ydannac: n
ramseygf: how do LTC work with weak 2's
grizz: same
grizz: we will probably see one shortly
ramseygf: south might have 2S
grizz: S losers are:
grizz: 2!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 2!d
grizz: and 2!c
grizz: 8 losers, not an opening hand
Jeschiwa: 2!c?
Jeschiwa: I see 1!c
grizz: !C32 are losers, but not the K
grizz: S hand, not E
Jeschiwa: y,ok
grizz: N hand:
grizz: 2!hs
grizz: 2!ds
grizz: and 2!cs
joyable: how many losers to safely open hand
grizz: how many !ss?
grizz: 7 is safe to open
panim: 2
hoppyjack: 2
ydannac: 2
joyable: ty
grizz: right, another adjustment here
grizz: just as the singleton K is one loser,
grizz: unsupported Qx is counted as 2
grizz: so N has 8 losers
grizz: not an opening hand either
grizz: however
grizz: after 2 passes, the restrictions on opening are relaxed somewhat
joyable: how much is somewhat
grizz: and with nice defensive values, N could safely open 1!c
joyable: some players open any garbage
grizz: yes, and i do not recommend opening trash even in 3rd seat
BnBeever: I would open 3!c on the N hand if I knew p would open all 12 counts here
grizz: might work, could backfire in a big way
grizz: if N were not a passed hand, S could bid 2NT here to show 11-12 and no 4-card major
grizz: but
grizz: since N is a 3rd seat opener and might be light,
grizz: some tact is required
grizz: lol
BnBeever: GIB forgot to bid?
grizz: when was the last time anybody played 1!D????
grizz: heavy sigh
grizz: back to LTC
Dianne0516: Drinking again :)
grizz: N has 8, S has 8
grizz: so LTC predicts that they take 8 tricks, making 2
grizz: ops take 2!s
grizz: 1!h
grizz: no !d
grizz: and probably no !cs
grizz: making 4
grizz: so LTC does not work accurately on this hand
grizz: though it does predict a part score, and not game
grizz: why not?
grizz: one reason is that it works best on a 9-card fit
grizz: and we have only 8 here
grizz: a double 8-card fit in the minors
grizz: another is that the !dK is in the slot
grizz: and W is finessed right out of it
grizz: another is that the !CQ falls on the second !c trick, and the J is finessible
grizz: if S guesses right
grizz: otherwise makes only 3
grizz: so LTC is not an exact science
grizz: just another tool for you
grizz: where LTC is really valuable is on shapely hands with good fits
grizz: not on flat hands like this
grizz: let's look at EW
grizz: W has 3!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 1!d
grizz: and 3!c
TheMoak: how can !c J be finessed if you catch Q?
grizz: 9 loseers
grizz: right, always a !c loser
grizz: back to LTC
grizz: W has 9
grizz: E has 1!s
grizz: 3!h
grizz: 3!d
grizz: and 2!c
ramseygf: how many LT's can an overcall be credited with?
grizz: could be as many as 9, usually no more than 8
grizz: so if EW play in !S, LTC predicts that they take 24-9-9
grizz: =6 tricks
grizz: so let's see if that holds up
grizz: EW would lose no!s
grizz: 2!hs
grizz: 2!d
grizz: and 2!c
grizz: making 7 tricks
grizz: so LTC is off by 2 in the NS, and off by 1 EW
grizz: as frequently happens on balanced hands
grizz: one more hand to evaluate, and then i will talk about loser expectations
grizz: W first, since he dealt
grizz: 2!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 2!d
grizz: and no !c
grizz: 6 losers
grizz: so W is an opening hand, and then some
grizz: just as Milton point count shows
grizz: E is 2!s
grizz: 1!h
grizz: 2!d
grizz: and 1!C
grizz: 6 losers, so it's an opening hand and then some as well
grizz: in fact, 24-6-6=12 tricks
grizz: so LTC predicts that EW can make small slam in their best fit
grizz: IFF they have enough controls
grizz: and sure enough, they have a 9 card !h fit
ramseygf: make big slam
grizz: actually makes 7
joyable: y 
grizz: with 4 pitches on !cs
joyable: very nice hands
grizz: notice something here, very important
grizz: EW have only 29 hcp!!!
grizz: but small slam is cold, with a play for 7
grizz: so this is a good example that LTC works well on distributional hands
grizz: now i'm going to throw some numbers at you
grizz: write them down if you want, or retrieve the chat log later
grizz: a minimum opening hand is 7 losers
grizz: a minimum responding hand is 9
grizz: an invitational opening hand is 8
grizz: oops, i goofed again
grizz: an invitational response hand is 8
grizz: an invitational opening hand is 6
grizz: and a game forcing opening hand opposite a minimum response is 5
grizz: a game forcing response hand is 7
grizz: a 2!c opener is typically 3 or fewer
grizz: is everybody still with me?
grizz: anybody not?
joyable: me
grizz: opening hand is 7
ydannac: y
grizz: invitational opener is 6
joyable: i'll write it down and then will be ok
Wanda310: y
grizz: GF rebid by opener is 5
grizz: minimum responder is 9
grizz: invitational responder is 8
grizz: GF responder is 7
grizz: all assuming, of course, that a fit is found
grizz: so let's look at a few more hands
grizz: i will try to find some that show invitational hands
ramseygf: tks
grizz: robots are fired
joyable: lol
grizz: N has 7 losers
grizz: 2!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 3!d
grizz: no !cs
grizz: S has 7 also
grizz: 2!s
Dianne0516: The bots need to take some of your classes Pete
grizz: rofl
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 1!d
grizz: 2!c
grizz: so S already knows that there should be game in this hand, if a fit is found
grizz: even though S has only 10 hcp
grizz: sidebar here
grizz: if S had less than 10 hcp, it should bid 1!h
grizz: but with 10 hcp S can take 2 bids, and it's fine to show the !ds first
grizz: aha!
grizz: a fit!
joyable: I would have bid 1 spade in West's seat
grizz: so LTC predicts that the hand makes 4!hs
grizz: although it's only an 8 card fit
grizz: still, playing imps, NS should bid the game
ramseygf: and go 1 down
grizz: yup, on this hand it doesn't make
grizz: but it does if the !hQ is in W
grizz: so it's a 50% game and they should bid it
ramseygf: using points i would invite game by using 3!H is that wrong
ramseygf: Partner might have 12 pts
joyable: lose 1 diam 2 spades...?? heart not sure loser 
grizz: no, i would not criticize 3!h here
grizz: the QT in E is guaranteed to win one trick
grizz: but put that T in the N or S hand, and it makes easily
grizz: and neither Milton nor LTC counts Ts
TheMoak: how abiut E/W hands?
grizz: W first
grizz: 1!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 2!d
grizz: 1!c
grizz: 6
grizz: an opening hand
grizz: except that with length in !d, and S bidding !d, W must be cautious
grizz: because:
grizz: that suggests that NS might not have a fit
grizz: and if NS don't have a fit, then EW don't have one either
grizz: and in a misfit situation, you would rather defend than declare
joyable: k
grizz: back to EW
TheMoak: what is E's LTC?
grizz: E has 2!s
grizz: 2!h
grizz: 3!c
grizz: 7 losers
grizz: so LTC predicts that EW can take 5 tricks in their best fit
grizz: which is !s
grizz: do they?
ramseygf: 18-13=5 
grizz: making 5S, not making 5 tricks  :)
ramseygf: so EW will probably win contract
grizz: EW lose no !ss
grizz: 2!hs
grizz: 1!c
grizz: so LTC is off by only 1 here
ramseygf: an adjustment by W because he has D yes
grizz: and joyable, who would have overcalled 1S in W, would be a big winner  :)
ramseygf: yes, 2 5card suits
grizz: right, 5/5 hands are very powerful
grizz: notice one other thing
grizz: either there is a double fit,
grizz: or a monster cross ruff
grizz: the one other thing that we should notice here
grizz: is that if W doesn't bid at first opportunity, the price of mistake goes way up
grizz: so if you will permit me one digression here
joyable: y
grizz: let me mention the Barry Crane rules
grizz: Barry was perhaps the best matchpoint player of all time
grizz: and just a part-time bridge player, he had a big job in Hollywood and only played local tournaments
grizz: his rules are:
grizz: 1.  get in fast
grizz: 2.  get out fast
grizz: 3.  the 3 level is dangerous
grizz: when was the last time anybody got rich defending a doubled 1-bid?
joyable: lol
grizz: probably never
grizz: because if defenders can defeat ops' 1, they surely have game or slam of their own
grizz: ok, thx all, seeya next week
grizz: for those who are leaving
grizz: i will stick around for a few minutes to answer questions
grizz: no questions?    then it's nap time in grizz land
annnew: what is nexct week's lesson? tx
grizz: what?   you expect me to plan that far ahead?    lol
grizz: i expect to do what i started off with, defending random hands
grizz: demonstrating the principles of leads and signals that we have talked about
grizz: ok, thx for attending, and i hope to see you all next week
grizz: bye now