grizz: Hi everybody, thanks for attending another in a series of lessons on Defense.  
grizz: Chat logs and hand records are stored in your computer for later review.  For information on how to retrieve them, go the BIL homepage or email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com.
grizz: I teach private individual, pair, and small group lessons.  If you would like to know more please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com.
grizz: Archives of previous sessions are available at GrizzBridge.com, on the Lessons and Archives page located at:  http://www.grizzbridge.com/Lessons_and_Archives.php
grizz: There are 40+ sessions logged there now, lots of good information.
grizz: There will be lots of questions.  I want to address them all, but in a manner helpful to all, so please ask them in open chat.  
grizz: If I forget a question while answering another, please remind me.
grizz: I encourage participation by all kibitzers
grizz: So jump right in with a comment, question, or bid at any time, but please do so in open chat.
grizz: There are only 5 basic types of defensive strategy at the beginning of a hand.
grizz: These concepts are out of the book "How The Experts Win At Bridge" by Burt Hall and Lynn Rose-Hall, the Book of the Year in 1997.
grizz: By way of review, and for those who are new here, the 5 lines of defense are:
grizz: 1.  Force declarer to ruff, and lose control of his own trump suit.
grizz: 2.  Active defense.
grizz: 3.  Passive defense.
grizz: 4.  Reduce ruffs.
grizz: 5.  Create trump tricks.
grizz: We have looked at Forcing, Active and Passive defense, Reduce ruffing power and Create Trump Tricks for several weeks, and now it is time for us to put that knowledge to work by ...
grizz: choosing opening leads.
grizz: Again, if you need review on the 5 Lines of Defense check out http://www.grizzbridge.com/Lessons_and_Archives.php and scroll down the page until you find those lessons under the ...
grizz: BIL listings.
grizz: Briefly, here are the lead guidelines for each of these different strategies.
grizz: 1.  Forcing defense - lead your side's strongest suit..
grizz: 2.  Active defense - also, lead your side's strongest suit.
grizz: 3.  Passive defense - top of a sequence, or a worthless suit
grizz: 4.  Reduce ruffs - start a trump
grizz: 5.  Creating trump tricks - lead from your own or toward partner's shortness
grizz: So choosing a lead depends on what your defensive game plan is, referring back to the 5 Lines of Defense.
grizz: When you know WHAT you intend to accomplish, it is easier to decide HOW to get it done.
grizz: In addition to the 5 Lines of Defense the special situations requiring special leads are as follows:
grizz: 1.  Gambling NT - lead an ace, look at dummy and try to locate declarer's weakness.
grizz: 2.  NT slams - if you and partner have not bid, lead top of a sequence or a worthless suit, avoid giving declarer a free finesse or other help.
grizz: 3.  Suit grand slams - a trump is almost mandatory, unless both ops have bid and raised a suit and you have the Ace.
grizz: 4.  Doubled part-score contracts - lead trump, try to kill ruffs in side suits.
grizz: There are also some special rules for lead-directing doubles:
grizz: 1.  If neither defender has bid, ops bid a NT game or slam and partner doubles, lead dummy's first bid suit.
grizz: 2.  If only partner bid and later doubles, lead his suit.
grizz: 3.  If only you bid and later partner doubles, lead your own suit.
grizz: 4.  If both you and partner have bid and partner doubles, lead the suit of the stronger hand - that is where the entries are.
grizz: 5.  If ops have not bid any suits (e.g. 1NT-3NT) and partner doubles, lead your SHORTER major.
grizz: This week we are going to look at example hands and auctions, consider defensive plans and choose leads.  
grizz: These example hands are not predealt, they are random.
grizz: So I have not analyzed them, rather we are all looking at them for the first time.  
grizz: The bidding will be done by the bots, though I must sit in one of the seats during play to control the pace.  
grizz: I have no idea who the declarer will be or which seat will be on lead, so you may kibitz all 4 hands.
grizz: We will put our heads together and come up with a defensive strategy based on the auction, the hand on lead, and the 5 Lines of Defense.
grizz: what do we know about ops' hands from the auction?
grizz: no !s fit
grizz: E is a minimum
grizz: and W has a !d fit
grizz: so both ops have !ds, that sounds like a cross ruff situation
grizz: so we have 2 logical choices for a defensive plan
grizz: 1.  lead trumps, to kill ruffs
grizz: 2.  Active defense, go grab out side suit tricks before they get ruffed out
grizz: frequently we don't have a standout single strategy for the defense before seeing dummy
grizz: but if we can eliminate 2 or 3 that are obviously wrong, then we are way ahead of the game
buburall: leading trump with KQ doesnt seems to be good,im thinking declarer can try 2times finess
grizz: very astute observation, and i totally agree
grizz: we might induce declarer into losing 2 trump tricks
kyno40: but it shows what you could lead next
kyno40: ?
grizz: btw, this is almost a mandatory false card situation, where if declarer takes the hook you win the K first
mpemble: don't want to lead !c, want p to lead that to you
grizz: also correct
asifnaseer: !S?
grizz: let's decide on a strategy before choosing a card
buburall: !H (seems declarer doesnt have a stop) otherwise he could try a nt bid (?)
mpemble: lead p@s suit lo yo show honour?
grizz: p did take strong action for a passed hand
grizz: and strongly implied !hs
asifnaseer: seems to me !D . kill ruff .......
buburall: so probably we'll choose to take all asap(variant 2)
grizz: with this trump combination, which might take 2 finesses, a trump lead to cut down on ruffs does not seem very attractive
chessapup: west did not repeat spades so p must have sp and lead thru strength
grizz: yes, W did not bid !s strongly, and E showed no interest in NT
spum1: with trump count 
spum1: e will not finesse
grizz: odds are that the KQ will take only 1 trick, whether as a ruff or as a natural trick
buburall: we dont know how many trumps E_W have
grizz: no, we don't
eubulides: choice is sp or cl
grizz: so it seems we have a choice between Kill Ruffs or Active defense
asifnaseer: !C is not correct at all 
buburall: so !D or !H (?)
grizz: there is no evidence of shortness for a Create Trump Trick lead
asifnaseer: hmmm......
grizz: and Passive is likely to surrender whatever advantage we have on opening lead
grizz: so as a choice between Kill Ruffs and Active, I vote for Active here
asifnaseer: ok lets see
grizz: so what is the best lead for Active?    out best suit, right?
buburall: yes
PedroG: !h
asifnaseer: obviusly
grizz: which seems to be !hs on this auction
grizz: start low or high?
asifnaseer: low
grizz: quite right
PedroG: did we just undelead Ace?
grizz: lol      N is not on the same page!
kyno40: no lol
bhr: underlead an A in a suit contract?
Miksa: North was sure that partner wouldn't underlead the Ace :)
wyoming33: return a !H - lol
benitezj: kill the GIB :)
grizz: yes, we underled an Ace in a suit contract, but notice - 
grizz: it is a suit we bid, or implied
grizz: not an unbid side suit
bhr: Yes
flying l: b
grizz: ok, how did that work out?
grizz: is some other line better?
wyoming33: nope
kyno40: NO
grizz: no
bhr->Club: no
grizz: and if we lead the !HA they make an overtrick
grizz: so remember an important exception to the "do not lead an unsupported A, or away from one" rule
asifnaseer: how u confirmed that opps have more than 1 !H
grizz: by inference
grizz: not certain, by any means
asifnaseer: got it
grizz: and there are hands that might bid this way where ops might be short in !h, but not many of them
grizz: that is not true of !c, of course
grizz: since S has 5
grizz: but with !HAxx, ops are unlikely to be short
grizz: any questions before we move on?
asifnaseer: move on
PedroG: Pete, isn't south X a bit offshape?
bhr: Read you loud and clear. Don't lead an unsupported Ace. 
asifnaseer: & tell me when to raise a minor
meshmeshaa: why didnt north respond 2c to souths dbl
meshmeshaa: instead of 2d..cuebid
chessapup: or 3c
grizz: wait, let's go back to the last hand
grizz: the hand is the right shape for X, though the values are in the wrong places
asifnaseer: X?
asifnaseer: dbl ?
grizz: the X guarantees 3-card support for the other 3 suits if 11+
grizz: or 17+ if the player bids again
grizz: the textbook shape for a takeout X is 4441, or only 1 or 2 cards off that shape
grizz: this one is 2 cards off
mpemble: i would bid 2!c as S
grizz: that would be ok too, though the !c suit is not very chunky
grizz: and that would likely kill any interest that pard might have in a major
buburall: me too
mpemble: makes it harder for w to show M
buburall: 2!c
Miksa: South has 10 HCPs (can't count !dQ). I would Pass 
grizz: !DQ is a loser, true
grizz: let's play it out this way then
PedroG: not really the point in enemy suit, not my big interrest
grizz: y, points in ops' suit are bad
grizz: though slightly less bad in minors than in majors
grizz: since a minor bid is more likely to be a "convenient minor" 
wyoming33: only 10 pts and not even 1 4-card major  - and lousy !C suit - think pass
grizz: another sidebar point here
grizz: it is almost never right to bid a 3-card suit
maysie: I am happy with X - certainly not 2C's! - Perhaps a Marty Bergen style X? - gotta bet into the action !LOL
grizz: but we have other conflicting rules here
grizz: one is the Barry Crane rule - get in early, get out early
grizz: you are far less likely to get doubled off for a big number at the 1 level, than higher
grizz: so in general if you have something to say, better earlier than later
maysie: let's see what happens when S goes 2H is response?
Miksa: good rule :)
grizz: back to S's bidding problem now
grizz: bidding a 3-card suit after pard's takeout is rarely correct
grizz: hmm, interesting problem now
asifnaseer: what this 4!D ? force to game ?
grizz: who is saccing?     lol
grizz: another good question
meshmeshaa: also level 3 has to be 5 cards??
grizz: if ops are on their way to 5!d, N may want to take an advance sac here
grizz: but not if they are stretching for 4!d
grizz: now S must decide whether to compete, X or pass
asifnaseer: pass
mpemble: pass
grizz: with very nice defensive cards, but no shape, competing seems wrong
Miksa: "get out early" :)
maysie: not - vul!
grizz: but S is not sure that  4!d won't make, so X is wrong too
grizz: and certainly no good reason to think it might go down 2
asifnaseer: if 1 dwn is 100% then x
buburall: pass-S minimal and dont know if !CK worth something
grizz: and generally you should not X unless you think that's a good possibility
grizz: why not?
grizz: because the extra 50 or 100 points you get for a 1-trick set are offset by the risk of ops making for a big number
grizz: also, ops may get information from the X that let them play to make
grizz: using a line they might not otherwise use
grizz: ok, different auction, same contract, same lead problem - does the different auction change the lead calculus?
maysie: and no lead directing suggestion for P!
asifnaseer: may be
buburall: yes we dont know abt !H now
buburall: so we must lead !D
grizz: sure, N Xed to show !h and !c
wyoming33: pard says have !H  
mpemble: N more likely to hold !s now as well as !hs
grizz: N is certain to have 4!hs, no more, no less
grizz: and 7+ hcp
Miksa: Maybe now it's better to lead !c, opps are short in clubs
maysie: and S now = 14pts
grizz: so on this auction it's a tossup between !h and !c, but still the same basic problem
grizz: ah, but ops' shortness in !c is no advantage for us -
grizz: just gets ops started earlier on the cross ruff
buburall: dunno,,i feel unsecure if my part dont bid a suit ,so i will choose !D now   
Miksa: aha, thanks. 
grizz: and we decided earlier that we should look for side suit tricks before they get ruffed out
grizz: so on a scale of 0-10, i guess the !h gets about a 7
grizz: and the !c about a 5
grizz: any other lead no more than 3
Miksa: excellent analyzis
dae: but never lead unsopporte A  OR FRaOM it??
grizz: a kib asks, "but never lead unsopporte A  OR FRaOM it??"
grizz: maybe you missed the discussion earlier, but that rule only applies to an unbid suit
wyoming33: its your pards suit
grizz: y, and low is correct
grizz: assume that opener has an honor, and use the ace to win it
grizz: if you lead the A and declarer has Qxx, the Q will score
grizz: not if you lead small
grizz: if RHO has KQx, the A lead surrenders a trick
grizz: so the only time the low lead loses is if there is a stiff K in either op hand
grizz: not very often!
grizz: ok, let's move on now
buburall: 3!S ?
grizz: very strange bid
grizz: as the bots are prone to make, from time to time
dae: why  2 nt?
wyoming33: all the bids strange - 
Miksa: assume it's 3!d?
grizz: click on the bot bids for explanations
wyoming33: says 3!S LOL
grizz: 2NT says "invitational"
grizz: and 3!s is delusional!
onoway: click on it  not just rest your cursor on it
grizz: should be 3 small, or honor doubleton
dae: "WE" would bid Jacoby 2 nt with E hand?
wyoming33: says has 3 !S -
buburall: LIAR W :P
grizz: y, for E to conceal the !h fit is a felony in 12 states, and justifiable homicide in 3 others!
wyoming33: LOL
PedroG: :)
Campus61: :)
robzim: rofl
PedroG: that's why we all play in BBO
buburall: so ew have 2 fits
buburall: !H and !s
grizz: so there is a problem with any auction that starts out 1!h-1!s
grizz: it's hard for responder to ever convince pard that he has a !h fit
grizz: or to establish a GF auction
grizz: so Jacoby 2NT would be good for this hand, establishing a GF auction and fit right away
grizz: and then W would show !s shortness, and E would bid game
PedroG: much cleaner
grizz: there are several ways to play Jacoby, but the most common after 1M-2NT-?
grizz: is any 3 bid is shortness, stiff or void
grizz: any 4 bid is a good 5-card second suit
robzim: doncha love how much we can learn from the GIBS?
grizz: y, learning good bidding from gibs is a fool's errand   :)
grizz: ok, now we have a lead problem
maysie: by Gib logic - 2nt seems to be point count as well as Jac version - then W is showing shortness by bidding 3S?
dae: that's for sure-this isn';t  realistic
grizz: click on the 3!s bid, it explains that W has 3!ss -  heavy sigh
buburall: if they have 2 fits,!H and !S ,E hold !D and w hold !C ,,probably best is to try a minor suite,like !D - take all we can
grizz: the bot knows what the bid means, and then proceeds to lie!
grizz: but humans make mistakes too, i don't want to be too critical of fred's bots   :)
grizz: it sounds like EW have a double fit in the majors
buburall: leading !H doesnt help,,they can develop 2nd fit of !S 
grizz: and trumps are breaking well
Miksa: yes - anyway, humans are behind bots, right? 
onoway: they haven't  been upgraded for a while, someone said
buburall: so leading a minor - !D
grizz: so we aren't going to create any trump tricks here
grizz: strategy first, then select a lead
buburall: take all we can
buburall: point 2
grizz: and Forcing defense doesn't work unless one defender has 4 trumps
grizz: so Forcing is out
grizz: Create Trump Tricks is out
grizz: and Kill Ruffs is out
grizz: leaving only Active and Passive
grizz: Passive is out, if ops have a double fit they will pull trump and pitch losers on their second suit
grizz: so Active is left as the only possible line that can work
grizz: in Active defense, lead your best suit
PedroG: 5!d
grizz: so here goes
grizz: assume standard signals
grizz: tyvm!
wyoming33: why didnt you finesse
grizz: i am not playing this one, the bot is
wyoming33: ahhhh
grizz: there is no defense that beats this one
grizz: in fact, only bad play held it to 4
grizz: there is no downside to taking the trump finesse
Miksa: better deckarer might try to establish !c to pitch !d loser?
PedroG: yes it seemed like a 4+2
wyoming33: think maybe can make 6?
grizz: sure
grizz: makes 6 with sensible declarer play
grizz: but this shows a great point on defense
grizz: DO NOT assume that ops will play perfect declarer!
PedroG: :)
grizz: and conversely, DO NOT assume that ops will play perfect defense!
Miksa: :)
grizz: which leads directly to one of my secrets of expert play -
grizz: if you don't beat yourself, you will win more often than not
grizz: that is, you don't need to know how to run squeezes, coups, and endplays
Miksa: how true it is!
robzim: you had the perfect example of those opps today -- didn't bid well, play well or defend well:)
grizz: or know all the right suit combinations
grizz: if you reduce or avoid mistakes, you will win
grizz: accept all gifts, but give none in return!    :)
grizz: so even if you don't make the absolute best lead, you can avoid an absolutely terrible one
grizz: which is nearly as good!
vinny3147: you must really enjoy christmas
grizz: lol
grizz: "Win By Not Losing"   lol
Miksa: well, that is somewhat as: "You should know half of the answer to ask right question", and here you must know how to accept the gift - so "a little" knowledge about coups, endplays is necessary, right?
grizz: oh certainly, that all helps
maysie: TY - knew i had something to look forward too - fewer mistakes ROFL
grizz: but the main point is that if you learn how to play and defend the routine hands correctly, you will score well
Miksa: right
grizz: win the tricks you should win, and don't throw any away
grizz: that is the recipe for winning bridge
Miksa: thanks for another great tip
grizz: it works for me, and it will work for all of you too   :)
Miksa: we just need to become experts, as you are :)
grizz: That concludes today's lesson, and next week we will have more quiz hands on opening leads.
grizz: If anybody needs help retrieving the hand records or chat log, please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com.   
ydannac: Thanks GRizz!H!H
PedroG: I try not to throw them, but they just seem to slip
onoway: thanks Pete
grizz: I teach private individual, pair, and small group lessons.  If you would like to know more please email me at Grizz@GrizzBridge.com.
maysie: three cheers for BOTS and their creative bidding!
robzim: thanks Pete :)
zewzew: thx Pete
grizz: Thanks for your interest and participation, and I hope to see you next week.
PedroG: thaks a lot Pete
->maysie: :)
->zewzew: :)
->PedroG: :)
Miksa: Thanks
grizz: Thanks also to Maureen, Rosemary, Fred and the wonderful people at BBO who make this all possible.
cdt: Thanks Pete
grizz: Thanks all for coming, i'll see you in a week
wyoming33: thanks - 
buburall: thanks have a nice evening
grizz: Bye now