grizz: before we start, going into the holiday season i'm going to be very busy with out-of-town relatives and preparations, so i must take a vacation from these sunday sessions until Jan. 6. norrito1 (Lobby): Hi Pete ->norrito1: hiya! i'll open a table soon norrito1 (Lobby): club2over1 will announce in a min ok club2over1 (Lobby): => Club: Grizz is giving Norrie a private lesson in the club. Kibs are welcome. Starting now:) grizz: before we start, going into the holiday season i'm going to be very busy with out-of-town relatives and preparations, so i must take a vacation from these sunday sessions until Jan. 6. norrito1: Pete will be taking a break from theses lessons after this week until Jan 6 Pete? grizz: right, too much stuff to do over the holidays, hope you don't mind grizz: ok Norrie, is there anything special you would like to work on? norrito1: hey Pete I love!H random norrito1: the unexpected lol grizz: ok then, here we go :) grizz: do you play 4th Suit Forcing? norrito1: we dont do nmf here ok Pete norrito1: some do grizz: right, that only happens over 1NT rebid, unless partnership agreement otherwise norrito1: yessir that s norm grizz: ok, here is a perfect opportunity for 4SF grizz: the 4th suit is artificial and forcing to game in all auctions except 1!C-1!d-1!H-1!s norrito1: so look for support 1st then stop etc grizz: forces to game, so you don't worry about being passed out in part score grizz: and allows room to explore on exotic hands and misfits grizz: suggests but does not promise 5 of your major grizz: and says nothing at all about !ds grizz: asks first for 3-card !s support norrito1: questions ok by me unless take over lol!H grizz: right, please remember that while this session is open to kibs, first and foremost it's norrie's lesson :) grizz: now grizz: if N has 3!s, he supports !s grizz: if not, and with a !d stopper, he would bid NT grizz: otherwise he must make some other bid grizz: and frequently must rebid a 5-card major, which does not promise extra length grizz: now you can show the !d stopper norrito1: 3nt or 2nt best' here? grizz: good question, what is your opinion and why? norrito1: 2nt ongoing? grizz: right norrito1: ok grizz: N has shown a minimum 2-suiter norrito1: 3nt just enough grizz: so 3NT would be drop-dead, to play norrito1: it fits norrito1: I try to show my thinking ok? grizz: it fits, if you have no slam aspirations grizz: and without a fit, you must rely on sheer strength for slam norrito1: yes 33 flat grizz: and based on sheer strength, slam probably is not there norrito1: or less plus suit runnoing yes? grizz: right grizz: so 3NT is a better bid norrito1: is why I asked I was 50 50 grizz: rearrange your points a little, move that !CQ to !s, and you should make a move toward slam norrito1: you !C 2nd suit grizz: but the 2NT bid is not bad, gives pd the last word on whether he has extras norrito1: exactly what I thought info grizz: since it is possible that he did, but couldn't show them yet grizz: now you should be very confident that slam is not in the cards norrito1: so if you like 2nt you bid a suit? on the way an honour? grizz: N might cuebid a stopper on the way to 3NT grizz: to make a mild slam try norrito1: ok tks norrito1: any ? kibs? grizz: !DK for instance, if he had it norrito1: but can he have if not bid nt grizz: not likely grizz: i led the !h3, do you see it? norrito1: yes grizz: ok, count winners now and plan the play norrito1: 6 norrito1: need 3 grizz: i see 7 top tricks grizz: 2!s norrito1: yes 7 grizz: 3!h grizz: 1!d grizz: 1!c norrito1: didnt count q!H grizz: :) grizz: we need 2 more then norrito1: I need a BEER grizz: lol norrito1: !C look good norrito1: for 1 I hOPE grizz: possibilities in all suits except !d grizz: here is the danger: norrito1: !DDDDD norrito1: timing grizz: whatever side suit you attack, make sure it's set up after losing only 1 trick, then prepare for ops to run !d at you norrito1: make before yes use stop norrito1: can lose 5 !D norrito1: ugh grizz: y grizz: lol i can't count to 4 this morning :) norrito1: try !S? grizz: what does the Rule of 11 tell you? norrito1: J in w grizz: subtract 6 from 11, that leaves 5 grizz: so there were 5 cards in N, E and S higher than the !h6 grizz: E and S both played one of those grizz: so all the rest are in W grizz: so !hs won't run norrito1: so !D more likely in e grizz: but you have lots of stoppers grizz: yes, !ds are likely in the E norrito1: so just the !C!S samono: but just one stopper at !d grizz: and we don't have much information about !s grizz: yes, and we must be very careful grizz: let's talk about the black suits norrito1: yes is why I listen bwd1: are there different odds against !S 3/3 or clubs coming in for 1 loss? grizz: !c first grizz: with this position, there is a unusual play that maximizes chances norrito1: to danger opp' E grizz: play for split honors, finesse the Q first, then the T grizz: loses only if E has both honors grizz: so it wins 75% of the time grizz: if it wins once, you pick up 2 tricks, assuming a 3-2 split norrito1: you want Q lead? grizz: no, still talking theory here norrito1: ok grizz: and what are chances of a 3-2 split? grizz: 68% grizz: ok, so chances look good in !cs grizz: what about !s? norrito1: I dont know exact % lol grizz: what are the chances of 3-3 split? grizz: round numbers, about 1 in 3 norrito1: similar? grizz: 35.5% norrito1: wow grizz: y, it's hard to memorize all the odds, but here is a good guideline - grizz: if a suit could split equally, like 2-2, 3-3 etc, it probably won't grizz: 2-2 is 41% grizz: 3-3 is 35.5% grizz: 3-1 is 49.7% grizz: 4-2 is 48.5% grizz: only one out of step with that is 1-1 which is 52%, but that hardly ever pops up meshmeshaa: odd ,breaks even...even , breaks odd grizz: do you know where to find these odds? norrito1: no Campus61: http://www.grizzbridge.com/ grizz: there is a link at GrizzBridge.com to this site: http://bridgehands.com/P/Probability_of_Card_Distribution.htm Campus61: http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm norrito1: tks barb grizz: and another good source of information for how to play suit combinations is: http://bridgehands.com/S/Suit_Combinations.htm grizz: back to !s for a minute norrito1: ok got those grizz: we have a 36% chance of 3-3 split grizz: also a possible finesse for the Q, which is 50% grizz: the danger is Txxx in either hand grizz: and we can only afford to lose the lead once grizz: so which should we attack? norrito1: &1 entry to N grizz: that too, and another consideration: grizz: there are no !hs in S, so we have to burn the !hs the one and only time we are in dummy! grizz: so we have a high-wire act without a net norrito1: y grizz: therefore we must be very careful before we start playing cards here grizz: back to the !s odds grizz: 3-3 is 36%, and Q onside is 50% how do these odds combine together? grizz: first subtract 36% from 100% grizz: leaving 64% grizz: Q onside is 50%=.5 grizz: .5*64%=32% grizz: 32% + 36% = 68% bwd1: ty very helpful :) grizz: one other consideration, as if this weren't enough! grizz: if !ss come home, we have 4 or 5 tricks grizz: if !cs come home, we have 3 or 4 grizz: maybe only 2, if KJxx is offside grizz: so we have 75% of one or two extra tricks grizz: and 68% chance of 2 or 3 extra tricks grizz: so what do we do with that information? norrito1: use it grizz: lol good plan! Mary Liz: :) norrito1: go for best odds grizz: best odds of what though? norrito1: 75% grizz: better odds for !cs, but more tricks available in !s norrito1: we dont need extras grizz: so it might come down to whether we are playing imps or matchpoints grizz: at imps we don't need the extra tricks, but we need to make the game norrito1: IMP assume I guess grizz: at mps, extra tricks are gold norrito1: I am scared of E with !C k grizz: so all things being equal, !c would be the imp play, and !s would be the mp play grizz: but we can do something here without committing to either line of play norrito1: big danger sign there grizz: if we play on !s, we expect to take the finesse, right? norrito1: from n yes grizz: right norrito1: entry grizz: there is about a 2% chance that the Q is stiff in either hand grizz: so let's play a top !s and see what happens grizz: we don't have to burn an entry to do that, and might learn something useful norrito1: see split ? grizz: well, no loud cards were played on that trick norrito1: again? grizz: if you do that again, you can't finesse E for the Q grizz: since there is only 1!s left in dummy grizz: now you must decide whether to attack !s or !c grizz: and you are back to the imps vs mp calculus grizz: you can further combine some odds if you are very careful grizz: the !c8 in dummy and !c7 in your hand are huge cards, do you see why? norrito1: yes enries kyno40: yes extra entry grizz: the !c8 is a hidden entry unless !cs break badly grizz: and since our only entry to dummy is !c, we must combine our chances in both the black suits grizz: so run the !cQ, and hook the !s coming back grizz: you don't have to cash the !hs, since you can get back with the 8!c norrito1: dont worry about E? norrito1: yetyet grizz: IFF (If and Only If) you keep the !c7 norrito1: yes leads to 8 grizz: right grizz: remember, the !c play is 75% norrito1: so try !C now q? grizz: :) grizz: phew grizz: that's a lot of thinking on only trick 2! norrito1: I cant see all hands lol grizz: aha! grizz: now it's in the bag norrito1: think I will go back to canasta lol grizz: lol norrito1: that took 5 mins to learn grizz: :) grizz: we talk all the time about odds, but it's hard to find out how to use them grizz: do you cover the K? norrito1: do you think W has any !D norrito1: I say maybe not cover grizz: if W didn't have any !ds, don't you think E would have bid with 8 of them? norrito1: we have to take the !H though sometime norrito1: most will cover I think grizz: we can guarantee making 3NT by covering grizz: 2!s grizz: 3!h grizz: 1!d grizz: and 3!c grizz: and here is the danger if we don't: norrito1: & the J !C grizz: the obvious danger is a !d shift norrito1: ? J grizz: and there is a 50% chance that the !c honors are split grizz: if you duck this trick, and the !cJ is offside, then what? grizz: then W knocks out your !d stopper now, and when ops are in they cash 5!ds too norrito1: so cover and finesse !!S after take !H' norrito1: we give J !C grizz: tada! grizz: cover now, knock out the J norrito1: bit take !H grizz: being careful to preserve the !c98 in dummy, and 7 in hand norrito1: ok so leave 8&7 grizz: if you take the !hs now, you will lose some number of !hs when you lose the !cJ grizz: ok, the danger is past now :) norrito1: can I breath now? grizz: :) grizz: expect E to have the KJTxxx norrito1: shall we hold up a bit? grizz: no, let's cash our tricks and go home at imps norrito1: ok grizz: at mps, we might get a little friskier grizz: decision time again grizz: do you feel lucky? bluehi: lol norrito1: NO grizz: wait grizz: how many !ss are out? norrito1: ok grizz: did you see W pitch one at Trick 6? norrito1: 3 left norrito1: no grizz: y, that's half the story grizz: the other half is, would W pitch one if he had the Q? grizz: and here is where bridge turns into poker norrito1: would keep stop grizz: 99% of players would not pitch down to a bare Q grizz: ok, i'll end the torture norrito1: so other holds stop grizz: at imps, take the K, make your game, and smile grizz: at mps, take the hook and hope grizz: odds are that it works grizz: but at imps you should not gamble that it won't norrito1: so we will assume we made 3nt & finesse? grizz: if the hook loses, ops will run 2!hs and 2!ds, for down 1 norrito1: best of both worlds lol grizz: :) grizz: the gambler wins this time :) norrito1: when is the bermuda bowl' grizz: lol grizz: wd! grizz: did you think this hand would be that complicated at Trick 1? norrito1: I did think it would be yes norrito1: I need to watch all cards played or at least important ones grizz: right grizz: now let's try it with a different lead norrito1: well 1 hand done do we do 1 more lol? grizz: this is the same hand grizz: but i have a surprise for you this time :) norrito1: oardI havent looked me bad typer I look at keybp grizz: lol grizz: 4SF norrito1: try 3 this time grizz: ok, the lead this time is not so friendly norrito1: so whats new pussycat? norrito1: why DO you make me suffer so Pete? grizz: because you LOVE it! grizz: we will see now how the odds are all different with the same cards norrito1: sort of love hate thing grizz: because you want to play like an expert grizz: so you need to know how to think like an expert norrito1: that wont happen until I am 100 yrs old grizz: lol norrito1: or more norrito1: so we hold up now grizz: yes, it is critical to cut ops' communications in !ds grizz: they hit your weakest point this time norrito1: that old rule of 7 thing grizz: which rule is that? norrito1: its not a great rule I say - subtract the number of cards in declarer and dummy from 7, that tells you how many times to hold up norrito1: 5 from 7=2 hold up twice wyoming33: works here - if west can get in and lead !D again norrito1: just use your nut I think grizz: sure, you can work that out at the table without memorizing a rule grizz: ok, W is out of !ds now grizz: and you have the lead grizz: so how do the odds differ from the last time? norrito1: e may have !C stop if we had not seen grizz: if !c honors are split, and E wins one, he cashes 3!ds too for a set grizz: so even though !cs is the better % play, it's suicidal norrito1: so not l risk that grizz: now the !s play stands out, because if it loses, W has no more !ds to lead norrito1: that dangerous opp again grizz: yup, danger is on the other side now grizz: remember how to play the !s? norrito1: its the !H prob now grizz: cash one top honor, hope to catch a stiff honor grizz: y, totally different play problem with the !d lead grizz: changes everything norrito1: Q ok !H grizz: sure grizz: ok Norrie, you deserve a beer now :) norrito1: well that was great Pete grizz: thx for being such a good sport norrito1: remember all Pete having a break from this lesson till about jan 6 bluehi: ok grizz: and again, it amazes me how many good issues pop up in only one random hand bluehi: tu happy holiday grizz dotfl: Thanks Pete and Norrie for letting us watch norrito1: tks all for coming & especially to Pete . grizz: thx kibs, we will be back here the first sunday in january Dianne0516: Thank you Pete and Norrie wyoming33: thx:) camilleln: ty! grizz: are there any questions before i go? Campus61: tks pete Happy holidays norrito1: no tks will see you at some lesson or etc norrito1: If it fits m y time lol grizz: ok :) norrito1: adios from Spain!H grizz: adios amigos meshmeshaa: thank you Norrito